Microsoft drives stunning success in new world of connected-car platforms

Carmakers keep rushing into shotgun weddings, with each bringing a substantial dowry of technology to the marriage.

BMW and Mercedes announced Feb. 27 a new, long-term agreement to pool their autonomous car efforts. Volkswagen and Ford executives did the same last week.

Autonomy is coming. It’s going to be expensive and may demolish century-old business models.

The first gas-powered passenger car debuted in 1886. The Benz Motorwagen had one cylinder, two strokes and three wheels. It was slow-moving and utilitarian — a horseless carriage with a dependable power plant.

Forged in the factories of Germany, Detroit and elsewhere, cars evolved into emblems of national ingenuity and status. The industry thrived, and economies of scale led to lower prices and multi-car families. In summer 1969, General Motors employed 853,000 workers worldwide.

Factory automation cut demand for workers. Now, self-driving cars may kill the industry as we know it.

If cars can self-navigate, they go from being symbols of ingenuity and status to efficient, utilitarian people-movers.

Most cars sit idle in parking lots or in-home garages 95% of the time. They are constantly depreciating in value, while accruing insurance and maintenance costs.

A safe, driverless car for individuals or rideshare would drastically change the economics of mobility.

Riders could use their smartphones to summon cars of their choice. Fares would be calculated in advance, and on per-mile basis, just like a current Lyft or Uber ride. And when the vehicle was no longer needed, it would drive away to its next fare.

A widely cited 2017 study from researchers at ETH Zurich, a Swiss science, technology and engineering university, predicted current taxi and rideshare fares could be slashed by 85% through the use of autonomous technologies.

You can imagine the immediate implications …

  • Cities would become denser with fewer parking spaces.
  • Traffic jams, road stress and fatalities will be largely eliminated.
  • Smog would be reduced.
  • And car ownership would become the domain of hobbyists except for people who wish to travel relatively long distances outside their metro area.

The industry is getting ready.

A 2018 PowerPoint presentation from Volkswagen paints the picture of driverless long-haul trucks, mobile mailboxes and urban mobility pods. It also plans for private vehicle sales to be as little as 18% of auto sales a decade after autonomous vehicle adoption.

That assessment is not far off the conclusions drawn in “Reimagine Places: Mobility as a Service“, a 2017 research report from KPMG, the global professional services company. When consumers get the opportunity to take back the time spent driving cars, they are likely to seize it with both hands.

There are plenty of skeptics, like driving enthusiast Jeremy Clarkson. The 58-year-old former host of BBC’s “Top Gear,” believes autonomous cars will not happen in his lifetime.

Executives at BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Ford, General Motors and every other car company beg to differ.

They are not only pooling their resources to get to market faster, they’re also buying up ride-hailing businesses to make sure they are not left out of that market.

Their motivation is fear, pure and simple. Autonomy is coming, fast.

They know their private-ownership business model makes no sense. They are watching disruptors in Silicon Valley and China push new business models based on miles traveled and future autonomy.

Last October, The Wall Street Journal reported leaked investment-banker documents showing an Uber IPO might be worth $120 billion to the ride hailing company.

This eye-popping figure is more than the combined values of General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler. Lyft’s S-1 prospectus, a roadmap to its pending IPO, was released on Friday.

Century-old business models are in danger of going extinct. But it’s not necessarily disruptive start-ups like Uber and Lyft that will be what takes out the dinosaurs.

The way for investors to get ahead of this trend is connected car platforms.

These back-end networks ingest the deluge of digital information modern cars produce.

Today, this data informs cutting-edge driver-assisted features like automatic braking, advanced cruise control and lane assist.

Tomorrow, the information will be the backbone of autonomy.

The leader in that space, bar none, is Microsoft (MSFT).

The Redmond software giant is quietly working behind the scenes to build the connected-car platform of choice in the industry. Renault Nissan became the first to join in January 2017. Volkswagen signed in October 2018.

Microsoft has cloud solutions relationships with Volvo, BMW, Toyota and Ford.

Boston Consulting Group estimates the market for comprehensive vehicle connectivity will be $159 billion by 2020. The cloud solutions marketplace is expected to reach $66 billion by 2022.

Microsoft shares trade at 25.6x forward earnings. The market capitalization is $860 billion. The stock is up 10.9% in 2019, and 20.5% over the previous 12 months.

While this is not cheap, the outlook for the business is extremely strong.

Long-term-oriented investors should buy Microsoft into any significant weakness.

Microsoft is a key position in my Tech Trend Trader model portfolio. My subscribers are sitting on as much as a 64.4% open gain in this stock. Click here to join us and you’ll get my sell signal for Microsoft, plus be among the first to get my next buy recommendation.

Best wishes,
Jon D. Markman

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Comments 1

German Krackow March 6, 2019

You can held yourself from demonizing Apple right and left at any chance, but when it comes to Microsoft it is all rosy and pretty. I tell you what it is tiring, so just one word for it: BULLSHIT.

Microsoft -only- prospered where it held a monopoly which it accomplish NOT by competing but by playing DIRTY, copying ideas from the competition, and then changing the Windows OS to kill -much better- desktop products it copied ideas from; stealing knowledge from the open source and then hiding it under the Proprietary seal. Yet it ONLY got the desktop Market and office software, which is STILL INFERIOR than Google, Open source Office software and even Apple Office products.

Google and even Apple offer much better office products that are a lot less expensive, and in the Google case open to REAL INDUSTRY STANDARDS, not closed proprietary expensive crap.

I guess you are so bias to Microsoft that you are blind to their -attempts- to compete which resulted in spectacular UGLY FLOPS !!. Let me remind of some :

1- They miss the Internet BIG time, and late to it kept using DIRTY tricks to derail the competing Browsers. They almost pulled off as they did with the Office Desktop software, as they managed to kill a MUCH BETTER browser, Netscape. But the REAL alternative of Open Source pulled the mat from under their feet, and showed how deeply flawed their ‘Internet Explorer’ browser was; grossly insecure, badly inefficient, and OF COURSE NOTHING TO DO with REAL Industry Standards, as so INCOMPATIBLE, just like ALL their other software.

2- Remember the MS IPOD, what a FLOP !!
3- How about their Phones ??, another UGLY FLOP.
4- How about their iPAD, not a flop yet, but on the edge.
5- How about their unbelievable brazen copy of the Apple Store concept ?, they can’t even create their own store concept, what a show of creativity !!
6- The Cloud, Amazon and Google created the practical Cloud, and MS is trying to enter this Market 15 years LATER !!. All they are doing is trying to save their Monopoly in the Desktop, which is their cash cow; so sure they have a captive market for it.
7- Automotive Software, just give me a break. The evolution of this area is based on OPEN STANDARDS which is like Kripptonite to MS.

And last for now. With the Internet which is BASED on TRUE INDUSTRY STANDARDS and OPEN SOFTWARE an almost infinity number of software products, programming languages and tools had been created, few if any has the MS name on it. That is why the Linux OS became the OS standard of choice for an almost infinity number of products, and programing languages like Java Scripts, C, C++, Java and Python are used everywhere.

Does Androit rings a bell ?, How about RedHat ?; there is NO company of significant size that does NOT use Linux to process the bulk of their data.

MS CAN’T create anything, it is ALL copied or stolen, it is ingrained in their culture, and it is sure part of their business Model.

However remember it is NOT any more about the Desktop.